Technology services providers face significant disruption from artificial intelligence while infrastructure, data, and security markets are positioned for clear growth, according to Forrester's new AI Disruption Model released this week. The research evaluated 17 technology and service categories spanning more than 200 markets, sorting them into four groups based on how AI is expected to affect them: disrupted, neutral, contested, and accelerated. The model examined nine factors, including the extent to which AI can replace work, labor intensity, switching costs, regulatory considerations, and support for AI agents.
The research places technology services squarely in the "disrupted" category, alongside application development, software services, and growth and transformation services. The connecting factor across these markets is labor—these are businesses where much of the value has historically come from human effort, and AI is becoming increasingly capable of performing some of that work itself. Forrester specifically identifies technology implementation and custom software development, as well as creative services and corporate training, as areas likely to experience heightened pressure. Infrastructure, data and AI, and identity, access, and network security are the only three categories broadly classified as accelerated, meaning they're positioned for expansion as organizations deploy more AI systems.
"The challenge for technology and service providers is not simply understanding where AI is advancing but how it will reshape the economics of their markets," said Ted Schadler, Forrester vice president and principal analyst. "Providers need to assess where AI will accelerate growth, alter market dynamics, or substitute existing value to make smarter bets about where to invest, compete, and partner." According to Craig Le Clair, Forrester vice president and principal analyst, "Every technology and service market is facing an AI overhaul. But the benefits of AI will not be evenly distributed."
The report explains that the disruption stems from AI's ability to make certain services faster and cheaper to deliver, which becomes problematic when customers begin expecting lower prices for them. At the same time, AI systems still require infrastructure, data, and security to function, creating ongoing demand on that side of the equation. For managed service providers, this creates a strategic tension—AI can cut costs in traditional services while simultaneously driving growth in infrastructure, cloud, security, and advisory work. Recent Forrester research on Asia-Pacific providers shows this shift in action, with MSPs moving beyond traditional IT support as customers increase spending on AI-related services.
Service providers will need to reassess their offerings and revenue mix as AI reshapes which markets grow and which face margin pressure. The model suggests providers should evaluate where AI will substitute existing value versus where it will create new demand, then adjust investment and partnership strategies accordingly. The fundamental takeaway: not all technology markets will benefit equally from AI's advance, and understanding which side of the divide your business sits on determines whether you're preparing for expansion or defending against compression. Providers who anchor their strategy in labor-intensive services without pivoting toward infrastructure, data, or security capabilities may find themselves competing on price in markets where AI has permanently reset customer expectations. The window for repositioning narrows as these economic shifts accelerate, making strategic choices about service mix less theoretical and more urgent with each quarter.