More than two-thirds of state technology leaders expect growing turbulence and disruption in their roles over the next five years, according to a new survey released Monday by the National Association of State Chief Information Officers. The 17th annual State CIO Survey, unveiled at NASCIO's conference in San Diego, gathered responses from 51 state and territory chief information officers and found a central theme: the nature of the CIO position is shifting as leaders confront widening duties, fast-moving technological shifts, and a modernization agenda that's increasingly hard to match.
The survey revealed that artificial intelligence governance has become nearly universal, with 98% of state CIOs reporting they now have enterprise policies and procedures for AI development and use—up from 76% a year earlier. Procurement terms and contract provisions for generative AI also climbed from 41% to 61%. Looking ahead, 64% of state tech leaders said agentic AI will be the most consequential emerging technology over the next two to three years, compared with just 14% for generative AI. Current agentic AI work is focused mainly on internal workflow and process automation, IT operations, application development, and customer service. Meanwhile, funding remains fragmented: 55% of state CIOs said they have dedicated funding to advance citizen digital services, while 45% do not.
Data center plans are also in flux. This year, 43% of state technology leaders said they were downsizing or "right-sizing" their state's data center facilities, while 73% reported their future plans include expanding the use of public cloud infrastructure over the next few years. Another 55% said they plan to hybridize the model by combining state-owned facilities and cloud with third-party infrastructure. Quantum computing remains largely a "watch-and-wait" technology, with 73% of CIOs saying their states are monitoring it but have taken no formal action. State CIO organizations haven't yet extended digital accessibility support broadly to local governments—just 35% reported that they assist local governments with accessibility efforts.
Tony Sauerhoff, Texas CIO and executive director of the Texas Department of Information Resources, said the turbulence finding is unsurprising. "I think it's this environment we find ourselves—the technical environment—we find ourselves in. We're being asked to do more, state CIOs, state CIO organizations," Sauerhoff said at the conference. He added that the changes are reshaping how CIOs think about their core mission: "It no longer means upgrading technology, upgrading hardware and software. It means changing how we run our business, how we do things, and it's more digital transformation than modernization for me." Christine Sakuda, Hawaii's CIO and administrator of the state's Office of Enterprise Technology Services, said the state has "a ton of funding, but I think not enough" for digital services. One CIO described the cybersecurity situation as: "The threat is high and the defenders are thin."
The report highlights several obstacles to tackling digital transformation. CIOs cited budget uncertainty, fragmented funding, one-time funding sources, and demand outpacing resources among the constraints. According to the survey, state technology leaders are now being asked to move beyond traditional IT responsibilities, expanding their remit to include broader digital transformation initiatives that reshape how state agencies deliver services to residents. Sakuda said Hawaii is entering a phase where leaders will examine how to create a comprehensive and intentional strategic plan to realign digital services and portal offerings across the executive branch so constituents have a unified experience across all government services. Part of the push for more funding includes communicating the value of digitizing resident services, she added. Cybersecurity remains a pressing concern, with most CIOs identifying the protection of critical infrastructure as a high priority.
Looking forward, the survey shows state technology leaders face a landscape where the pace of technological change and the expansion of their responsibilities are outrunning available resources and traditional funding models. The shift from incremental modernization to full-scale digital transformation means CIOs must navigate a broader strategic role while managing budget constraints and elevated cyber threats. The report suggests that without dedicated, sustainable funding and clearer strategic alignment across state agencies, the turbulence state tech chiefs anticipate will only intensify. State leaders who can't adapt their governance models and funding structures to match the speed of change risk falling further behind—and leaving residents with fragmented, outdated digital services. That tension between ambition and capacity may define the role of state CIOs for years to come, as agencies compete for talent and dollars in an environment where technology moves faster than policy.